web analytics

Mathematics

Imaginarity: New Paper Says The Imaginary Part Of Quantum Mechanics Can Be Observed

Mathematics is a language and languages can be used to create stories. It just takes imagination to create time travel or wormholes or theories of strings or lots of nice things theoretical physicists throw into arXiv.Sometimes math has to create a story because real numbers don't work, even if the physics does.Wave-particle duality, a foundation of quantum mechanics, has a fascinating science...

read more

Model That Claimed Only Lockdown Works To Prevent Coronavirus Spread Was Flawed, Shows New Look

If you believe the Chinese government, they've had basically no meaningful COVID-19 deaths since March. I'd also like to sell you a wet market in Wuhan. Believing a dictatorship that has routinely lied has been disastrous. It was disastrous for the reputation of the World Health Organisation, who claimed no travel should be curtailed and that the virus could not spread from human to human because...

read more

It’s Time To Stop Pretending Polls Are Scientific

If there is one lesson that political experts may have finally gotten in 2020, it's that polls are shockingly inaccurate.read more

read more

It’s Time To Stop Pretending Polls Are Scientific

If there is one lesson that political experts may have finally gotten in 2020, it's that polls are shockingly inaccurate.read more

read more

Should Any Current COVID-19 Estimates Be Used To Make Policy Decisions?

There is a popular saying in statistics - "Everyone believes the data except the collector. No one believes the model except the modeler."read more

read more

Poll Averaging Was No More Accurate In 2012 Than It Is Now

In 2012, the enthusiasm for poll averaging reached a fever pitch. Very few people were critical of it and instead talked about how science had taken over predictive politics. (1)I was critical of the accuracy and swam against the tide of those in media gushing about the new frontier opened up by New York Times statistical pundit Nate Silver and others, which posited that we could now predict...

read more